Sustainable Development and Conservation Biology – �鶹��Ƶ

The Frederick City Watershed: Forecasting Climate Change Impacts

Victor Manzanilla — Wed, 01 Nov 2023 03:39:41 +0000

This report serves to assist The City of Frederick in making future planning decisions about the Frederick City Watershed, a 7,000 acre, forested property just west of the city. Specifically, this report will address the question of how the Frederick City Watershed will be impacted by anticipated shifts in precipitation and extreme weather events due to climate change. To assess the potential impacts that climate change may have on the Frederick City Watershed, climate models were applied to the watershed area and a forecast of several climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, snowfall, runoff, evapotranspiration and wind speed were evaluated. The data used for forecasting climate change impacts was taken from the Downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate and Hydrology Projections website (Maurer et al, 2007; Reclamation, 2014). The datasets aim to provide a set of high resolution, bias-corrected climate change projections. These can be used to evaluate climate change impacts on processes that are sensitive to finer-scale climate gradients and the effects of local topography on climate conditions. Two scenarios were projected: the RCP 4.5 business-as-usual trajectory, and RCP 8.5 worst case emissions scenario. In addition to the climate modeling, an extensive literature review of potential climate factors on ecosystem services was conducted. Under both modeling scenarios, temperatures are predicted to increase significantly across seasons and over the course of the century. Precipitation will remain fairly constant, but the greatest increase will occur in winter and spring; more of the precipitation will fall as rain rather than as snow. Runoff and soil moisture is expected to increase slightly during the winter and spring for both emissions scenarios, while evapotranspiration is expected to see significant increases in the spring, summer and fall. The models project no change in wind speed. Overall, the results demonstrate a significant increase in temperature, which would seasonally affect the duration and type of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff. Changes in these variables translate to specific implications for the Frederick City Watershed ecosystem, including decreased water quality due to increased storm water runoff, an increased spread of invasive plant species, and a rise in plant diseases. In order to effectively manage The City of Frederickâ€s drinking water supply, the city should prepare for anticipated changes in climatic variables. Given the model projections, The City of Frederick should consider the following management techniques for the City of Frederick Watershed: commit to creating a Frederick City Watershed water balance model; incorporate regional water management and storage strategies; implement storm water management techniques; monitor water quality; and prepare for increased pest outbreaks. These suggested management measures will strengthen the cityâ€s resilience and ensure that The City of Frederick will be able to continually provide adequate supplies under both current and potential future climate change conditions.

Human Dimensions of the Frederick City Watershed

Victor Manzanilla — Wed, 01 Nov 2023 03:39:41 +0000

The Frederick City Watershed is a multi-use property with the primary function of providing clean water for The City of Frederick, but also provides many opportunities for recreation. Our research focused on analyzing the historical and current human dimensions of the Frederick City Watershed to inform management decisions. To better understand the makeup of recreational user groups and their impact on the watershed, both interviews and surveys were conducted. Interviews with Frederick City Watershed stakeholders provided historical context related to land use activities, forest cover, wetland modification, native species distribution, and management decisions. The surveys of recreational users imparted a better understanding of use and perceptions of the Frederick City Watershed. From the surveys and interviews, eight main topics of interest were identified for further discussion: user group demographics, environmental concerns, trail signage, trail conditions, garbage and illegal dumping, invasive species, forest purpose, and safety. Public perception on each of these topics is expanded through quantitative survey data and user comments within the report. We recommend creating a Recreation Management Plan for the Frederick City Watershed geared toward the multi-user group community. Besides the watershedâ€s primary function as a source of high quality water, survey responses and user comments can be used to pinpoint the areas of greatest concern to the majority of users and help narrow the focus of the Recreation Management Plan to the most pressing issues facing the Frederick City Watershed.

Invasive Species Survey, Frederick City Watershed

Victor Manzanilla — Wed, 01 Nov 2023 03:39:41 +0000

Invasive plant species are present within Frederick City Watershed and are a concern for ecosystem health. Research has shown that roads and trails often act as vectors for invasive species. Within Frederick City Watershed, there is a 9.5-mile sanctioned (legal) trail and over 100 miles of unsanctioned (illegal) trails. We addressed three questions to better understand the impact of roads and trails on invasive species prevalence within Frederick City Watershed. First, does invasive species prevalence differ near sanctioned versus unsanctioned trails? Second, does invasive species prevalence decrease with increasing distance from trails? Last, does invasive species prevalence increase closer to roads? To address these questions, we performed a survey of invasive species along transects running perpendicular to both sanctioned and unsanctioned trails. For each transect, we estimated a percent cover of invasive species within one-meter square plots at zero, five, 10, 15 and 20 meters on either side of the trail. In addition, we used GIS to determine transect distance from the nearest road. Our results show that invasive species cover increases with decreasing distance from both trails and roads. Our survey results also show that invasive species cover was greater near unsanctioned trails. However, due to the low sample size, it is unclear whether trail type or distance from the nearest road is responsible for this trend. Based on these results, we recommend closing trails farthest from roads to prevent the establishment of invasives in more remote areas of the Watershed, while focusing removal efforts along roads and trails closest to roads.